Methods for estimating the development of learning materials.

There are several methods for estimating the instructional design and development of learning materials.

You can guess, if you are an expert. Don't laugh, this may be the best way to estimate an application of a new technology. Use an expert to do the guessing, if possible. An expert will be able to bring experience and arcane knowledge to the task and make a good educated guess.

Prototype the product. This is one of the best ways to estimate an unknown technology or to form a good foundation for the estimates of a product with repeated components. For example, if you need to build 44 modules, each with three on-line pages of exposition, a job-based example, a job-based practice built in Flash and three alternative test items for the True/False database, just build one full example and see how long it takes. Or for better estimating, build one that the client sees as a "simple" module, and one that the client sees as a "complex" module. Then use the time spent to create an estimate for the whole project.

Use historical data of actual budget spent for similar projects. This is the best, especially if the data is from your own past projects. Just be careful that the projects are truely similar in the products they are to produce and in the work environment. But beware of your own optimism. Don't expect to do it faster or more efficiently this time. If you fudged the budget records for any reason, you will end up with a poor estimate and probably out-of-pocket for extra time needed.

Roll up the estimate using a methodology. This may be the second level estimate for most projects, but the professionals who want to stay solvent, use this method as a basis for all initial quotes. First, you set out the work tasks of the process, then you identify how many times each work task will be repeated to produce your final product. For example, if you need 44 sets of 3-page exposition, then you will need to put a factor of 44 on the work task, "Develop on-line module exposition". Estimate how long it will take to perform a single instance of the work task and then multiply. Then add up all the estimates for the work tasks. Be sure to include administration overhead and a contingency.

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