The Principles of Estimating the Development of Learning Materials

The following principles MUST be kept in mind when you are estimating the design and development of learning materials:

Do not lie to yourself or others. The absolute truth about the actual time it takes to do something will be discovered when you have done it. Don't try to please others with an "estimate" that matches their hopes and dreams.

An estimate is just that...an estimate. You will never be able to give an exact prediction of cost or effort until you have completed the project. Things happen. Always add a continency amount before your reveal your estimates to anyone else.

The best predictor of the future is the past. Keep historical records of all your projects. If you did the same thing in 60 days last year and not much has changed, you can estimate 60 days to do the project this year.

Leading Edge Technologies often translates to Bleeding Edge Technologies. New technology never delivers the efficiencies it promises on your first project, or maybe never. New technologies require extra time for learning how to use them and often create other interface problems. Be sure to add time for the "learning curve", or you will do the bleeding!

Nine women cannot cooperate to have a baby in one month. A team of people working on the project can often reduce the elapsed time of the project, but you will never reduce the total required work days by using a team as opposed to a single efficient person.

Some tasks cannot be done by several people cooperating (i.e. having the baby). If a team of people work on a task, they require time to communicate so that there is not a duplication of work. Also a team requires someone to spend time allocating and tracking tasks, either a team member or a supervisior.

Administration time is not a waste of time. Once you have begun a project the only thing standing between you and failure is someone who makes sure the tasks are done, the products are completed and there is a minimum or rework. This may be the team members or a manager. Always add 10% to the project estimates for administration. Everyone has to fill out timesheets and if you wish to know where you are, you will need status reports and estimates of further work required. It all takes time and should be included in your work estimates.

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